What effect will the Bush era recession have on the violent crime rate in the US over the next few years?

The clic definition of recession have not yet been met. I do not deny that we are probably going to slip into a recession, but there are certain conditions which merit the term. Crime always rises when jobs are lost. However there is another interesting thing that happens in recessions. Prices begin to fall. Oil is already dropping which in turn will cause a reduction in the price of other goods and services as shipping and production costs go down. This in turn will somewhat ease the economic difficulties for many Americans.